What is Polymarket and how does it work?

Polymarket is a prediction market: a platform where you buy and sell shares that represent the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a sports game, a crypto price at a certain time. Each share pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't. The price of a share (between $0 and $1) is effectively the market's estimate of the probability.

How a trade works

Say a market asks "Will BTC be up in the next 5 minutes?". If "Up" trades at $0.60, the crowd thinks there's a ~60% chance. You buy "Up" shares at $0.60 each. If BTC ends up higher, each share settles at $1.00 (a $0.40 profit per share); if not, they're worth $0.

You can also sell before the market resolves. If the price moves from $0.60 to $0.80 in your favour, you can close for the gain without waiting for the result.

What you need

• A wallet on Polygon (Polymarket runs on-chain).
• USDC to trade with — you deposit it into your Polymarket account.
• Nothing else: no broker, no middleman holding your funds beyond the smart contract.

Why people trade it

Prices update in real time as information arrives, so there are constant small edges for people who are faster or sharper than the crowd. That is exactly what automated tools target — but the risk of loss is real, and short-term markets are close to a coin flip unless you have a measurable edge.

This article is informational, not financial advice. Trading prediction markets carries a risk of total loss. Check that using it is legal in your jurisdiction.